Combat Edge Intelligence

Anthony Rocco Martin vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-0Record21-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
TBDReach70,5"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamH2O MMA· 1644 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

Olivier Aubin-Mercier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Anthony Rocco Martin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Anthony Rocco MartinNow 1718
If they win+19→ 1737
If they lose-13→ 1705
Olivier Aubin-MercierNow 1793
If they win+9→ 1802
If they lose-15→ 1778

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1655 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.68
Sig. strikes / min
2.48
37%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.97
58%
Strike defense
56%
0.71
Takedown avg.
2.36
27%
Takedown accuracy
34%
69%
Takedown defense
71%
1.02
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Anthony Rocco MartinOlivier Aubin-Mercier
1700175018002020202120222023

Win method breakdown

1 (6%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
10 (56%)
Submission
8 (38%)
7 (39%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Olivier Aubin-Mercier75%
Anthony Rocco Martin 25%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Olivier Aubin-Mercier a 75% favorite over Anthony Rocco Martin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Olivier Aubin-Mercier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1793 to 1718, a 75-point edge.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Anthony Rocco Martin finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Olivier Aubin-Mercier 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.