Anthony Smith vs Antônio Braga Neto
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-22-0Record9-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'3"
76"Reach77,0"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Factory XTeamTeam Nogueira
What's at stake
Anthony Smith is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Antônio Braga Neto carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1683
If they lose-15→ 1659
If they win+30→ 1613
If they lose-18→ 1565
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony SmithAntônio Braga Neto
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Anthony Smith58%
Antônio Braga Neto 42%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Smith a 58% favorite over Antônio Braga Neto in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Anthony Smith holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1674 to 1583, a 91-point edge.
Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Antônio Braga Neto enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Anthony Smith finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Antônio Braga Neto 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.