Anthony Smith vs Hector Lombard
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-22-0Record34-11-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height5'9"
76"Reach71.00
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Factory XTeamUFD Gym
What's at stake
Hector Lombard is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Anthony Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1687
If they lose-11→ 1663
If they win+11→ 1715
If they lose-13→ 1691
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1703 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony SmithHector Lombard
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Anthony Smith52%
Hector Lombard 48%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Smith a 52% favorite over Hector Lombard in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Hector Lombard's way (46%).
Hector Lombard holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1704 to 1674, a 30-point edge.
Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Hector Lombard enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Anthony Smith finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Hector Lombard 76%.
Anthony Smith carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.