Anthony Smith vs Maurício Rua
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-22-0Record27-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
76"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Factory XTeamUniversidade da Luta
What's at stake
Maurício Rua is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Anthony Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1687
If they lose-11→ 1663
If they win+11→ 1702
If they lose-13→ 1678
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony SmithMaurício Rua
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Maurício Rua52%
Anthony Smith 48%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Maurício Rua a 52% favorite over Anthony Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Maurício Rua holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1691 to 1674, a 17-point edge.
Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Maurício Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Anthony Smith finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Maurício Rua 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.