Anthony Smith vs Ryan Spann
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-22-0Record24-11-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'5"
76"Reach79"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Factory XTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Ryan Spann is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Anthony Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1687
If they lose-11→ 1663
If they win+11→ 1721
If they lose-13→ 1697
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony SmithRyan Spann
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Spann76%
Anthony Smith 24%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Spann a 76% favorite over Anthony Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Ryan Spann holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1674, a 36-point edge.
Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ryan Spann enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Anthony Smith finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Spann 88%.
Anthony Smith and Ryan Spann share 1 common opponent: Dominick Reyes.
Ryan Spann carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.