Anton Kuivanen vs Michael Chiesa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-13-0Record20-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'1"
TBDReach75"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Primus Fight TeamTeamSikjitsu
What's at stake
Michael Chiesa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Anton Kuivanen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1596
If they lose-6→ 1572
If they win+6→ 1764
If they lose-18→ 1740
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1526 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anton KuivanenMichael Chiesa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Chiesa89%
Anton Kuivanen 11%Elo baseline: 74%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Chiesa a 89% favorite over Anton Kuivanen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).
Michael Chiesa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1758 to 1578, a 180-point edge.
Anton Kuivanen enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Anton Kuivanen finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chiesa 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.