Combat Edge Intelligence

Antonio Arroyo vs Deron Winn

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record7-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'6"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team FigueiredoTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

Deron Winn is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Antonio Arroyo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Antonio ArroyoNow 1574
If they win+17→ 1591
If they lose-15→ 1559
Deron WinnNow 1596
If they win+15→ 1611
If they lose-17→ 1579

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1573 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.82
Sig. strikes / min
4.55
66%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.21
50%
Strike defense
46%
1.14
Takedown avg.
4.28
42%
Takedown accuracy
53%
42%
Takedown defense
40%
0.23
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Antonio ArroyoDeron Winn
16001650202020212022

Win method breakdown

4 (40%)
KO/TKO
4 (57%)
5 (50%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (10%)
Decision
3 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Deron Winn53%
Antonio Arroyo 47%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Deron Winn a 53% favorite over Antonio Arroyo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Deron Winn holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1596 to 1574, a 22-point edge.

Antonio Arroyo finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Deron Winn 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.