Combat Edge Intelligence

Antonio Arroyo vs Joaquin Buckley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record21-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'8"
TBDReach76"
205 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team FigueiredoTeamMurcielago MMA

What's at stake

Joaquin Buckley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Antonio Arroyo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Antonio ArroyoNow 1574
If they win+24→ 1598
If they lose-8→ 1566
Joaquin BuckleyNow 1755
If they win+6→ 1761
If they lose-18→ 1737

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1573 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.82
Sig. strikes / min
3.88
66%
Strike accuracy
37%
2.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.93
50%
Strike defense
59%
1.14
Takedown avg.
1.54
42%
Takedown accuracy
45%
42%
Takedown defense
72%
0.23
Submission avg.
0.08

Trajectory

Antonio ArroyoJoaquin Buckley
16001650170017502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (40%)
KO/TKO
15 (71%)
5 (50%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (10%)
Decision
6 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Joaquin Buckley92%
Antonio Arroyo 8%Elo baseline: 74%

The Combat Edge model makes Joaquin Buckley a 92% favorite over Antonio Arroyo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).

Joaquin Buckley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1755 to 1574, a 181-point edge.

Joaquin Buckley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Antonio Arroyo finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Joaquin Buckley 71%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.