Antônio Carlos Jr. vs Luke Rockhold
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-0Record16-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'3"
79"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1763
If they lose-16→ 1731
If they win+16→ 1758
If they lose-16→ 1726
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Carlos Jr.Luke Rockhold
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antônio Carlos Jr.70%
Luke Rockhold 30%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Carlos Jr. a 70% favorite over Luke Rockhold in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1747 vs 1742), separated by just 5 points.
Antônio Carlos Jr. enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Antônio Carlos Jr. finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Luke Rockhold 88%.
Antônio Carlos Jr. carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.