Combat Edge Intelligence

Antônio Carlos Jr. vs Paulo Filho

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-0Record24-6-3
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'8"
79"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamBrazilian Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Antônio Carlos Jr.Now 1731
If they win+16→ 1747
If they lose-16→ 1715
Paulo FilhoNow 1731
If they win+12→ 1743
If they lose-12→ 1719

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1588 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.12
Sig. strikes / min
0.72
42%
Strike accuracy
34%
3.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.75
40%
Strike defense
67%
2.92
Takedown avg.
0.52
80%
Takedown accuracy
8%
73%
Takedown defense
43%
2.19
Submission avg.
1.55

Trajectory

Antônio Carlos Jr.Paulo Filho
170017502019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
5 (21%)
12 (67%)
Submission
9 (38%)
6 (33%)
Decision
10 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

Antônio Carlos Jr.70%
Paulo Filho 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Carlos Jr. a 70% favorite over Paulo Filho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1731 vs 1731), separated by just 0 points.

Antônio Carlos Jr. enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Antônio Carlos Jr. finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Filho 58%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.