Combat Edge Intelligence

Antônio Carlos Jr. vs Thales Leites

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-6-0Record28-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
79"Reach78,0"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Antônio Carlos Jr.Now 1747
If they win+16→ 1763
If they lose-16→ 1731
Thales LeitesNow 1744
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-12→ 1732

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1713 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.12
Sig. strikes / min
2.13
42%
Strike accuracy
41%
3.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
40%
Strike defense
53%
2.92
Takedown avg.
2.10
80%
Takedown accuracy
27%
73%
Takedown defense
31%
2.19
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Antônio Carlos Jr.Thales Leites
17001750201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
4 (14%)
12 (67%)
Submission
15 (54%)
6 (33%)
Decision
9 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Antônio Carlos Jr.72%
Thales Leites 28%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Carlos Jr. a 72% favorite over Thales Leites in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1747 vs 1744), separated by just 3 points.

Antônio Carlos Jr. enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Antônio Carlos Jr. finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Thales Leites 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.