Antonio Carvalho vs Arata Mizuno
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record9-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height6'0"
TBDReach-
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Bruckmann Martial ArtsTeamFreelance· 1605 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1644
If they lose-16→ 1612
If they win+16→ 1647
If they lose-16→ 1615
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antonio CarvalhoArata Mizuno
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Arata Mizuno70%
Antonio Carvalho 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Arata Mizuno a 70% favorite over Antonio Carvalho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1628 vs 1631), separated by just 3 points.
Antonio Carvalho finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Arata Mizuno 33%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.