Antonio Carvalho vs Daniel Pineda
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record28-17-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'7"
TBDReach69"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Bruckmann Martial ArtsTeam4oz. Fight Club· 1653 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Antonio Carvalho is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Daniel Pineda carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1642
If they lose-18→ 1610
If they win+13→ 1606
If they lose-11→ 1582
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antonio CarvalhoDaniel Pineda
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antonio Carvalho67%
Daniel Pineda 33%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Antonio Carvalho a 67% favorite over Daniel Pineda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Antonio Carvalho holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1628 to 1593, a 35-point edge.
Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Antonio Carvalho finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Daniel Pineda 100%.
Antonio Carvalho and Daniel Pineda share 1 common opponent: Darren Elkins.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.