Antonio Carvalho vs Darren Elkins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record29-13-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Bruckmann Martial ArtsTeamDuneland Vale Tudo
What's at stake
Darren Elkins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Antonio Carvalho carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1647
If they lose-13→ 1615
If they win+10→ 1695
If they lose-14→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1658 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antonio CarvalhoDarren Elkins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Darren Elkins70%
Antonio Carvalho 30%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Darren Elkins a 70% favorite over Antonio Carvalho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Darren Elkins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1628, a 57-point edge.
Darren Elkins enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Antonio Carvalho finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Darren Elkins 52%.
Antonio Carvalho and Darren Elkins share 1 common opponent: Daniel Pineda.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.