Antonio Carvalho vs Darren Elkins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record29-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
TBDReach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Bruckmann Martial ArtsTeamDuneland Vale Tudo
What's at stake
Darren Elkins is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Antonio Carvalho carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1646
If they lose-13→ 1614
If they win+10→ 1709
If they lose-14→ 1685
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antonio CarvalhoDarren Elkins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Darren Elkins72%
Antonio Carvalho 28%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Darren Elkins a 72% favorite over Antonio Carvalho in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Darren Elkins holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1627, a 72-point edge.
Antonio Carvalho finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Darren Elkins 52%.
Antonio Carvalho and Darren Elkins share 1 common opponent: Daniel Pineda.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.