Antonio dos Santos vs Geoff Pavey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-4-0Record3-3-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'5"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight186 lbs
MMA MastersTeamSensei MMA
What's at stake
Geoff Pavey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Antonio dos Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1510
If they lose-23→ 1462
If they win+23→ 1524
If they lose-25→ 1476
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1696 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antonio dos SantosGeoff Pavey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Geoff Pavey78%
Antonio dos Santos 22%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 78% favorite over Antonio dos Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Geoff Pavey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1501 to 1485, a 16-point edge.
Antonio dos Santos finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Geoff Pavey 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.