Combat Edge Intelligence

Antonio Fofirca vs Cain Carrizosa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-1-0Record11-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'2"Height5'8"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
The Black Panther GymTeamElite Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Antonio FofircaNow 1566
If they win+24→ 1590
If they lose-24→ 1542
Cain CarrizosaNow 1564
If they win+16→ 1580
If they lose-16→ 1548

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1513 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1535 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.72
TBD
Strike accuracy
42%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.80
TBD
Strike defense
51%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
14%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Antonio FofircaCain Carrizosa
155016002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (50%)
KO/TKO
3 (27%)
1 (25%)
Submission
3 (27%)
1 (25%)
Decision
5 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Antonio Fofirca62%
Cain Carrizosa 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Antonio Fofirca a 62% favorite over Cain Carrizosa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1566 vs 1564), separated by just 2 points.

Cain Carrizosa enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Antonio Fofirca finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Cain Carrizosa 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.