Antonio Fofirca vs Mark Holst
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-1-0Record12-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight169 lbs
The Black Panther GymTeamOAMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1590
If they lose-24→ 1542
If they win+16→ 1583
If they lose-16→ 1551
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1513 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1533 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antonio FofircaMark Holst
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antonio Fofirca59%
Mark Holst 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Antonio Fofirca a 59% favorite over Mark Holst in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mark Holst's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1566 vs 1567), separated by just 1 points.
Antonio Fofirca finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Mark Holst 92%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.