Antonio Mendes vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-13-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height-
TBDReach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Dragon FightTeamTeam Ryano Waterford
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1487
If they lose-12→ 1463
If they win+24→ 1495
If they lose-24→ 1447
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1554 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antonio MendesMatthew O'Rourke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke70%
Antonio Mendes 30%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 70% favorite over Antonio Mendes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Antonio Mendes's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1475 vs 1471), separated by just 4 points.
Antonio Mendes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Antonio Mendes finishes 67% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.