Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Jason Brilz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record23-6-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height5'11"
77"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1582 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamElite Performance
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1720
If they lose-12→ 1696
If they win+12→ 1726
If they lose-12→ 1702
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1600 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rogério NogueiraJason Brilz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Antônio Rogério Nogueira and Jason Brilz within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1708 vs 1714), separated by just 6 points.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Jason Brilz 70%.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira and Jason Brilz share 1 common opponent: Ryan Bader.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.