Combat Edge Intelligence

Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Luiz Cane

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Luiz Cane
br

Luiz Cane

“Banha”

17-7-0Light HeavyweightF2N

1638Solid

Tale of the tape

23-10-0Record17-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
77"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamDemian Maia Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Antônio Rogério Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Luiz Cane carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Antônio Rogério NogueiraNow 1708
If they win+10→ 1718
If they lose-14→ 1694
Luiz CaneNow 1638
If they win+19→ 1657
If they lose-13→ 1625

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.43
Sig. strikes / min
4.79
35%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5
60%
Strike defense
61%
0.64
Takedown avg.
0.56
45%
Takedown accuracy
29%
62%
Takedown defense
100%
0.79
Submission avg.
0.28

Trajectory

Antônio Rogério NogueiraLuiz Cane
165017001750201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

8 (35%)
KO/TKO
15 (88%)
6 (26%)
Submission
0 (0%)
9 (39%)
Decision
2 (12%)

Combat Edge model read

Antônio Rogério Nogueira57%
Luiz Cane 43%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rogério Nogueira a 57% favorite over Luiz Cane in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Antônio Rogério Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1708 to 1638, a 70-point edge.

Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Luiz Cane 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.