Combat Edge Intelligence

Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Modestas Bukauskas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-10-0Record20-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
77"Reach78"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamGintas Combat

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Antônio Rogério NogueiraNow 1708
If they win+12→ 1720
If they lose-12→ 1696
Modestas BukauskasNow 1707
If they win+12→ 1719
If they lose-12→ 1695

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1641 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.43
Sig. strikes / min
3.24
35%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.05
60%
Strike defense
51%
0.64
Takedown avg.
0.26
45%
Takedown accuracy
67%
62%
Takedown defense
79%
0.79
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Antônio Rogério NogueiraModestas Bukauskas
16501700175020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (35%)
KO/TKO
11 (55%)
6 (26%)
Submission
3 (15%)
9 (39%)
Decision
6 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Modestas Bukauskas70%
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Modestas Bukauskas a 70% favorite over Antônio Rogério Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Antônio Rogério Nogueira's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1708 vs 1707), separated by just 1 points.

Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Modestas Bukauskas 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.