Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Muhammad Saidov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record10-0-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
77"Reach73"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1582 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamGOR MMA· 1738 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1720
If they lose-12→ 1696
If they win+16→ 1728
If they lose-16→ 1696
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rogério NogueiraMuhammad Saidov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Muhammad Saidov71%
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 29%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Muhammad Saidov a 71% favorite over Antônio Rogério Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1708 vs 1712), separated by just 4 points.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Muhammad Saidov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Muhammad Saidov 90%.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.