Combat Edge Intelligence

Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Patrick Cummins

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-10-0Record10-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
77"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamReign MMA

What's at stake

Antônio Rogério Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Patrick Cummins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Antônio Rogério NogueiraNow 1708
If they win+8→ 1716
If they lose-16→ 1692
Patrick CumminsNow 1602
If they win+21→ 1623
If they lose-11→ 1591

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.43
Sig. strikes / min
4.26
35%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.35
60%
Strike defense
56%
0.64
Takedown avg.
4.49
45%
Takedown accuracy
41%
62%
Takedown defense
29%
0.79
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Antônio Rogério NogueiraPatrick Cummins
1600165017001750201820192020

Win method breakdown

8 (35%)
KO/TKO
4 (40%)
6 (26%)
Submission
2 (20%)
9 (39%)
Decision
4 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Antônio Rogério Nogueira61%
Patrick Cummins 39%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rogério Nogueira a 61% favorite over Patrick Cummins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Antônio Rogério Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1708 to 1602, a 106-point edge.

Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Patrick Cummins 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.