Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Phil Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record24-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
77"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamAlliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Phil Davis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Antônio Rogério Nogueira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1720
If they lose-11→ 1696
If they win+11→ 1734
If they lose-13→ 1710
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rogério NogueiraPhil Davis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antônio Rogério Nogueira55%
Phil Davis 45%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rogério Nogueira a 55% favorite over Phil Davis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Phil Davis's way (48%).
Phil Davis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1707, a 16-point edge.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Phil Davis 46%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.