Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Phil Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record24-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
77"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamAlliance MMA
What's at stake
Phil Davis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Antônio Rogério Nogueira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1721
If they lose-11→ 1697
If they win+11→ 1750
If they lose-13→ 1726
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1665 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rogério NogueiraPhil Davis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Phil Davis70%
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 30%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Phil Davis a 70% favorite over Antônio Rogério Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Phil Davis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1739 to 1708, a 31-point edge.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Phil Davis 46%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.