Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Rashad Evans
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record20-8-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height5'11"
77"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Antônio Rogério Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rashad Evans carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1718
If they lose-13→ 1694
If they win+13→ 1685
If they lose-11→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rogério NogueiraRashad Evans
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rashad Evans52%
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 48%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Rashad Evans a 52% favorite over Antônio Rogério Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Antônio Rogério Nogueira's way (45%).
Antônio Rogério Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1672, a 35-point edge.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Rashad Evans 45%.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira and Rashad Evans share 2 common opponents: Sam Alvey and Ryan Bader.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.