Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Rob Wilkinson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record20-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
77"Reach80"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamHybrid Training Centre
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1720
If they lose-12→ 1696
If they win+16→ 1723
If they lose-16→ 1691
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1663 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rogério NogueiraRob Wilkinson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rob Wilkinson70%
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rob Wilkinson a 70% favorite over Antônio Rogério Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Antônio Rogério Nogueira's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1708 vs 1707), separated by just 1 points.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Rob Wilkinson 90%.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira and Rob Wilkinson share 1 common opponent: Phil Davis.
Rob Wilkinson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.