Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Ryan Bader
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record31-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
77"Reach74,0"
205 lbsWeight232 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
Ryan Bader is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Antônio Rogério Nogueira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1724
If they lose-8→ 1700
If they win+8→ 1831
If they lose-16→ 1807
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rogério NogueiraRyan Bader
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Bader74%
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 26%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Bader a 74% favorite over Antônio Rogério Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Ryan Bader holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1823 to 1708, a 115-point edge.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Bader 52%.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.