Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Ryan Spann
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record24-12-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'5"
77"Reach79"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1720
If they lose-12→ 1696
If they win+12→ 1708
If they lose-12→ 1684
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1678 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rogério NogueiraRyan Spann
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Spann56%
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 44%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Spann a 56% favorite over Antônio Rogério Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Antônio Rogério Nogueira's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1708 vs 1696), separated by just 12 points.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Spann 88%.
Ryan Spann carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.