Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Sam Alvey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record34-18-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'2"
77"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
Antônio Rogério Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Sam Alvey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1718
If they lose-14→ 1694
If they win+14→ 1654
If they lose-10→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rogério NogueiraSam Alvey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antônio Rogério Nogueira61%
Sam Alvey 39%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rogério Nogueira a 61% favorite over Sam Alvey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Antônio Rogério Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1708 to 1640, a 68-point edge.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira and Sam Alvey share 1 common opponent: Ryan Spann.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.