Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Tito Ortiz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-10-0Record21-12-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
77"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamTeam Punishment
What's at stake
Tito Ortiz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Antônio Rogério Nogueira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1723
If they lose-9→ 1699
If they win+9→ 1798
If they lose-15→ 1774
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rogério NogueiraTito Ortiz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tito Ortiz74%
Antônio Rogério Nogueira 26%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Tito Ortiz a 74% favorite over Antônio Rogério Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Tito Ortiz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1789 to 1708, a 81-point edge.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tito Ortiz enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Tito Ortiz 71%.
Antônio Rogério Nogueira and Tito Ortiz share 2 common opponents: Ryan Bader and Rashad Evans.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.