Antonio Silva vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-15-1Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'0"
80,0"Reach72,0"
264 lbsWeight249 lbs
American Top TeamTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
Roy Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Antonio Silva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1602
If they lose-11→ 1578
If they win+11→ 1643
If they lose-13→ 1619
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1649 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1687 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Antonio SilvaRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antonio Silva62%
Roy Nelson 38%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Antonio Silva a 62% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roy Nelson's way (44%).
Roy Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1632 to 1589, a 43-point edge.
Antonio Silva enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Antonio Silva finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Antonio Silva carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.