Combat Edge Intelligence

Antonio Trócoli vs Caio Magalhaes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record10-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'5"Height6'1"
79"Reach73.00
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
LG SystemTeamTeixeira MMA & Fitness

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Antonio TrócoliNow 1541
If they win+16→ 1557
If they lose-16→ 1525
Caio MagalhaesNow 1545
If they win+24→ 1569
If they lose-24→ 1521

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.37
Sig. strikes / min
2.27
50%
Strike accuracy
40%
5.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.78
24%
Strike defense
56%
0.79
Takedown avg.
1.05
10%
Takedown accuracy
15%
33%
Takedown defense
58%
0.79
Submission avg.
1.58

Trajectory

Antonio TrócoliCaio Magalhaes
155016002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
5 (42%)
Submission
4 (40%)
4 (33%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Antonio Trócoli61%
Caio Magalhaes 39%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Antonio Trócoli a 61% favorite over Caio Magalhaes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Caio Magalhaes's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1541 vs 1545), separated by just 4 points.

Antonio Trócoli enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Caio Magalhaes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Antonio Trócoli finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Caio Magalhaes 70%.

Antonio Trócoli carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.