Combat Edge Intelligence

Antonio Trócoli vs Mantas Kondratavičius

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record9-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'5"Height6'2"
79"Reach75"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
LG SystemTeamFighter House

What's at stake

Mantas Kondratavičius is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Antonio Trócoli carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Antonio TrócoliNow 1541
If they win+21→ 1562
If they lose-11→ 1530
Mantas KondratavičiusNow 1662
If they win+11→ 1673
If they lose-21→ 1641

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.37
Sig. strikes / min
4.55
50%
Strike accuracy
33%
5.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.64
24%
Strike defense
60%
0.79
Takedown avg.
13.64
10%
Takedown accuracy
100%
33%
Takedown defense
0%
0.79
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Antonio TrócoliMantas Kondratavičius
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
6 (67%)
5 (42%)
Submission
2 (22%)
4 (33%)
Decision
1 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Mantas Kondratavičius79%
Antonio Trócoli 21%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Mantas Kondratavičius a 79% favorite over Antonio Trócoli in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Mantas Kondratavičius holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1662 to 1541, a 121-point edge.

Antonio Trócoli enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Mantas Kondratavičius enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Antonio Trócoli finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Mantas Kondratavičius 89%.

Antonio Trócoli carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.