Combat Edge Intelligence

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Brendan Schaub

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

34-10-1Record10-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
77"ReachTBD
240 lbsWeight238 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamReign MMA

What's at stake

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Brendan Schaub carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraNow 1800
If they win+8→ 1808
If they lose-16→ 1784
Brendan SchaubNow 1682
If they win+21→ 1703
If they lose-11→ 1671

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1688 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
2.92
43%
Strike accuracy
38%
2.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.22
55%
Strike defense
57%
1.30
Takedown avg.
2.32
29%
Takedown accuracy
46%
36%
Takedown defense
73%
2.39
Submission avg.
0.39

Trajectory

Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraBrendan Schaub
1700175018001850201320142015

Win method breakdown

3 (9%)
KO/TKO
7 (70%)
21 (62%)
Submission
1 (10%)
10 (29%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Brendan Schaub57%
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira 43%Elo baseline: 34%

The Combat Edge model makes Brendan Schaub a 57% favorite over Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira's way (34%).

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1800 to 1682, a 118-point edge.

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Brendan Schaub enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Brendan Schaub 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.