Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Cain Velasquez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record14-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
77"Reach77"
240 lbsWeight241 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy
What's at stake
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Cain Velasquez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1810
If they lose-14→ 1786
If they win+19→ 1756
If they lose-13→ 1724
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1741 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraCain Velasquez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cain Velasquez61%
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira 39%Elo baseline: 41%
The Combat Edge model makes Cain Velasquez a 61% favorite over Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira's way (41%).
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1800 to 1737, a 63-point edge.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Cain Velasquez 86%.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cain Velasquez share 1 common opponent: Fabrício Werdum.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.