Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Curtis Blaydes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record20-6-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
77"Reach80"
240 lbsWeight256 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1791
If they lose-12→ 1767
If they win+12→ 1793
If they lose-12→ 1769
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1688 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraCurtis Blaydes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Curtis Blaydes63%
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Curtis Blaydes a 63% favorite over Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1779 vs 1781), separated by just 2 points.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Curtis Blaydes 65%.
Curtis Blaydes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.