Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Denis Goltsov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record37-9-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'5"
77"Reach78"
240 lbsWeight248 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1582 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamSambo Piter
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1812
If they lose-12→ 1788
If they win+12→ 1799
If they lose-12→ 1775
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1655 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraDenis Goltsov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Denis Goltsov72%
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira 28%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Denis Goltsov a 72% favorite over Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1800 vs 1787), separated by just 13 points.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Denis Goltsov 84%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.