Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Fabrício Werdum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record24-10-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
77"Reach45,0"
240 lbsWeight246 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamWerdum Combat Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1812
If they lose-12→ 1788
If they win+12→ 1815
If they lose-12→ 1791
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1725 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraFabrício Werdum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fabrício Werdum68%
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira 32%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Fabrício Werdum a 68% favorite over Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1800 vs 1803), separated by just 3 points.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Fabrício Werdum 75%.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira and Fabrício Werdum share 1 common opponent: Cain Velasquez.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.