Combat Edge Intelligence

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Ivan Shtyrkov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

34-10-1Record23-2-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
77"ReachTBD
240 lbsWeight237 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1582 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamArchangel Michael Club· 1764 avg Elo · 3 rated

What's at stake

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Ivan Shtyrkov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraNow 1800
If they win+11→ 1811
If they lose-13→ 1787
Ivan ShtyrkovNow 1783
If they win+13→ 1796
If they lose-11→ 1772

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.95
Sig. strikes / min
0
43%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
1.30
Takedown avg.
TBD
29%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
36%
Takedown defense
TBD
2.39
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraIvan Shtyrkov
180018502013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (9%)
KO/TKO
11 (48%)
21 (62%)
Submission
5 (22%)
10 (29%)
Decision
7 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Ivan Shtyrkov78%
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira 22%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Ivan Shtyrkov a 78% favorite over Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira's way (48%).

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1800 to 1783, a 17-point edge.

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Ivan Shtyrkov 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.