Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Roy Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record24-20-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
77"Reach72,0"
240 lbsWeight249 lbs
Team Nogueira· 1582 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamCountry Club
What's at stake
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Roy Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1807
If they lose-17→ 1783
If they win+17→ 1648
If they lose-7→ 1624
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1684 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraRoy Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira82%
Roy Nelson 18%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira a 82% favorite over Roy Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1800 to 1631, a 169-point edge.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Roy Nelson enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Roy Nelson 83%.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira and Roy Nelson share 1 common opponent: Frank Mir.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.