Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Sergei Pavlovich
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-10-1Record21-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
77"Reach84"
240 lbsWeight260 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamEagles MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1812
If they lose-12→ 1788
If they win+16→ 1825
If they lose-16→ 1793
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1730 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antônio Rodrigo NogueiraSergei Pavlovich
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sergei Pavlovich79%
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira 21%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Sergei Pavlovich a 79% favorite over Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1800 vs 1809), separated by just 9 points.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Sergei Pavlovich 76%.
Sergei Pavlovich carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.