Arata Mizuno vs Ernest Chavez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record10-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'8"
-ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Freelance· 1556 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamTotal MMA Studios
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1650
If they lose-16→ 1618
If they win+16→ 1648
If they lose-16→ 1616
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Arata MizunoErnest Chavez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Arata Mizuno55%
Ernest Chavez 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Arata Mizuno a 55% favorite over Ernest Chavez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1634 vs 1632), separated by just 2 points.
Ernest Chavez enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Arata Mizuno finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Ernest Chavez 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.