Combat Edge Intelligence

Arata Mizuno vs Justin Gonzales

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-2-0Record14-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Freelance· 1622 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamTop Notch MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Arata MizunoNow 1631
If they win+16→ 1647
If they lose-16→ 1615
Justin GonzalesNow 1630
If they win+16→ 1646
If they lose-16→ 1614

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
6.67
TBD
Strike accuracy
80%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
0.87
TBD
Strike defense
43%
TBD
Takedown avg.
14
TBD
Takedown accuracy
74%
TBD
Takedown defense
100%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Arata MizunoJustin Gonzales
155016001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (22%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
1 (11%)
Submission
1 (7%)
6 (67%)
Decision
9 (64%)

Combat Edge model read

Arata Mizuno67%
Justin Gonzales 33%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Arata Mizuno a 67% favorite over Justin Gonzales in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1631 vs 1630), separated by just 1 points.

Justin Gonzales enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Arata Mizuno finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Justin Gonzales 36%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.