Arata Mizuno vs Kaiwen Li
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record17-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
-Reach69"
145 lbsWeight150 lbs
What's at stake
Arata Mizuno is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Kaiwen Li carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1649
If they lose-17→ 1617
If they win+13→ 1628
If they lose-11→ 1604
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Arata MizunoKaiwen Li
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kaiwen Li61%
Arata Mizuno 39%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Kaiwen Li a 61% favorite over Arata Mizuno in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Arata Mizuno's way (47%).
Arata Mizuno holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1634 to 1615, a 19-point edge.
Arata Mizuno finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Kaiwen Li 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.