Arata Mizuno vs Kaiwen Li
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record17-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
-Reach69"
145 lbsWeight150 lbs
What's at stake
Arata Mizuno is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Kaiwen Li carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1652
If they lose-18→ 1620
If they win+13→ 1617
If they lose-11→ 1593
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1536 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1599 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Arata MizunoKaiwen Li
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kaiwen Li53%
Arata Mizuno 47%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Kaiwen Li a 53% favorite over Arata Mizuno in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Arata Mizuno's way (45%).
Arata Mizuno holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1638 to 1604, a 34-point edge.
Arata Mizuno finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Kaiwen Li 65%.
Arata Mizuno and Kaiwen Li share 1 common opponent: Juntaro Ushiku.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.