Combat Edge Intelligence

Arata Mizuno vs Kaiwen Li

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Kaiwen Li
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Kaiwen Li

“The Underdog”

16-8-0LightweightRUFC

1611Solid

Tale of the tape

9-1-0Record16-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'9"
-Reach69"
145 lbsWeight150 lbs
FreelanceTeamK-1 Gym

What's at stake

Arata Mizuno is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Kaiwen Li carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Arata MizunoNow 1630
If they win+15→ 1645
If they lose-17→ 1613
Kaiwen LiNow 1611
If they win+13→ 1624
If they lose-11→ 1600

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1522 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1580 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.73
TBD
Strike accuracy
43%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.72
TBD
Strike defense
54%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.41
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
93%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Arata MizunoKaiwen Li
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (22%)
KO/TKO
9 (56%)
1 (11%)
Submission
1 (6%)
6 (67%)
Decision
6 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Kaiwen Li67%
Arata Mizuno 33%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Kaiwen Li a 67% favorite over Arata Mizuno in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Arata Mizuno's way (47%).

Arata Mizuno holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1630 to 1611, a 19-point edge.

Arata Mizuno finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Kaiwen Li 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.