Combat Edge Intelligence

Archie Colgan vs Nurullo Aliev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-1-0Record12-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
70"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Genesis Training AcademyTeamKaizen MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Archie ColganNow 1734
If they win+16→ 1750
If they lose-16→ 1718
Nurullo AlievNow 1733
If they win+16→ 1749
If they lose-16→ 1717

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1604 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.29
TBD
Strike accuracy
44%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.59
TBD
Strike defense
55%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.48
TBD
Takedown accuracy
10%
TBD
Takedown defense
80%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.46

Trajectory

Archie ColganNurullo Aliev
17001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
2 (17%)
1 (8%)
Submission
0 (0%)
7 (54%)
Decision
10 (83%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Archie Colgan and Nurullo Aliev within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1734 vs 1733), separated by just 1 points.

Nurullo Aliev enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Archie Colgan finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Nurullo Aliev 17%.

Nurullo Aliev carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.