Archie Colgan vs Usman Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-0-0 Record 21-0-0
Lightweight Division Lightweight
5'9" Height 5'11"
70" Reach 72"
155 lbs Weight 155 lbs
Genesis Training Academy Team American Kickboxing Academy
What's at stake
Usman Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Archie Colgan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1768
If they lose-12→ 1736
If they win+12→ 1843
If they lose-20→ 1811
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Archie Colgan Usman Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Usman Nurmagomedov73%
Archie Colgan27%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Usman Nurmagomedov a 73% favorite over Archie Colgan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Usman Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1831 to 1748, a 83-point edge.
Archie Colgan enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Usman Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Archie Colgan finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Usman Nurmagomedov 71%.
Usman Nurmagomedov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.