Arijan Topallaj vs Chance Rencountre
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-1Record16-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'2"
-Reach75,0"
163 lbsWeight170 lbs
Planet Eater· 1649 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAlliance MMA· 1633 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1635
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1590 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Arijan TopallajChance Rencountre
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Arijan Topallaj66%
Chance Rencountre 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Arijan Topallaj a 66% favorite over Chance Rencountre in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1651 vs 1650), separated by just 1 points.
Arijan Topallaj enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Arijan Topallaj finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Chance Rencountre 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.