Arijan Topallaj vs Miguel Baeza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-1Record10-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'2"
-Reach74"
163 lbsWeight170 lbs
Planet Eater· 1649 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1635
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1635
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1617 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Arijan TopallajMiguel Baeza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Arijan Topallaj62%
Miguel Baeza 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Arijan Topallaj a 62% favorite over Miguel Baeza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1651 vs 1651), separated by just 0 points.
Arijan Topallaj enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Miguel Baeza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Arijan Topallaj finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Miguel Baeza 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.