Combat Edge Intelligence

Arijan Topallaj vs Renzo Gracie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-2-1Record14-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'10"
-ReachTBD
163 lbsWeight171 lbs
Planet Eater· 1649 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Arijan TopallajNow 1651
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1635
Renzo GracieNow 1649
If they win+16→ 1665
If they lose-16→ 1633

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1553 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.71
TBD
Strike accuracy
41%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.67
TBD
Strike defense
56%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.13
TBD
Takedown accuracy
21%
TBD
Takedown defense
40%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.80

Trajectory

Arijan TopallajRenzo Gracie
1600165020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (15%)
3 (30%)
Submission
8 (62%)
2 (20%)
Decision
3 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Arijan Topallaj68%
Renzo Gracie 32%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Arijan Topallaj a 68% favorite over Renzo Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1651 vs 1649), separated by just 2 points.

Arijan Topallaj enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Arijan Topallaj finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Renzo Gracie 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.