Aristides Vinícius vs Tom Pagliarulo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-3-1Record11-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height6'0"
68"Reach71"
146 lbsWeight145 lbs
CT Carrasco LimaTeamNew England Cartel· 1665 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1684
If they lose-16→ 1652
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1515 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aristides ViníciusTom Pagliarulo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Pagliarulo61%
Aristides Vinícius 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Pagliarulo a 61% favorite over Aristides Vinícius in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1668 vs 1669), separated by just 1 points.
Aristides Vinícius enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tom Pagliarulo enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Aristides Vinícius finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Tom Pagliarulo 91%.
Tom Pagliarulo carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.